Former U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow is adamant the Democratic candidate in the state’s red 1st U.S. House District is primed to upset the Republican incumbent in a seat that hasn’t been on anyone’s radar during the last 22 months.
Several districts in Midwest states have been deemed flippable by Democrats in areas previously inhospitable or downright hostile to left-leaning candidates, and as election day draws closer, Michigan’s map contains three races groups like the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have trained their sights on since last year on the 7th, 4th and 10th U.S. House districts.
Last week, though, a new potential target emerged as a priority for some high-ranking Michigan Democrats, one which would represent a remarkable underdog victory if their favored candidate were to beat the incumbent Republican: the state’s 1st U.S. House District, where Traverse City attorney Callie Barr is running her sophomore campaign to unseat longtime U.S. Rep. Jack Bergman, R-Watersmeet.
Stabenow commented on a post about one of Bergman’s negative ads, saying, “Republicans are worried! Callie Barr is going to beat Jack Bergman. Very exciting!”
One of the largest U.S. House districts in the country by land area, the 1st District spans roughly 35-and-a-half counties and reaches as far in the south to Standish and, to the north and west, Copper Harbor and the Wisconsin border. It has frontage on three of the five Great Lakes, covers roughly 44% of Michigan’s total land area and hasn’t elected a Democrat since former U.S. Rep. Bart Stupak’s final term prior to retirement, in 2008.
Bergman has held the seat since 2017, handily fending off Democratic challengers (editor’s note: this story has been changed to correct the year Bergman took office). This year, though, some Democrats think the conditions are right for an ouster, including Stabenow.
Stabenow replied to a post on X over the weekend that noted ad purchases made by Bergman and national Republican groups in the 1st District going on the offensive against Barr, seeking to tie her to out-of-state officials or candidates at the top of the ticket deemed “radical.”
A series of spots airing across the district connect Barr with Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, D-New York, and refer to her as “crooked Callie” and “too dangerous” for northern Michigan.
Overall ad spending in the district’s general election contest has hit nearly $1.3 million, per AdImpact. Barr’s campaign has bought or reserved $704,681 of ads since the August primary and until Nov. 3, against $544,918 from Bergman’s campaign, figures which both represent highly irregular spending compared to prior contests in the district.
Stabenow commented on a post about one of Bergman’s negative ads, saying, “Republicans are worried! Callie Barr is going to beat Jack Bergman. Very exciting!”
In another instance, Stabenow commented again in response to a Democratic congressional staffer’s post that “seats are getting competitive that it didn’t even occur to (him) to check on.”
“This is a real race!” Stabenow commented. “Callie Barr is going to beat Jack Bergman!”
Behind the scenes, the retired senator appears to have made Barr’s campaign a personal priority in its final weeks: per sources in the district, former Stabenow campaign manager Dan Farough, who also helmed two campaigns for outgoing U.S. Sen. Gary Peters and served as campaign chair for Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson’s 2018 election, has been recruited to shepherd Barr’s challenge of Bergman down the stretch.
1st District Democratic Chair Chris Cracchiolo said Stabenow’s investment in the race has paid off, literally and figuratively, with a burst of energy and donations since her social media comments.
“Other people have stepped forward since Debbie came onboard,” he said. “Pete Buttigeig endorsed Callie; the people (working on the campaign) now have the world of experience and what it takes to win.”
Fundraising outlook and a late-stage momentum spike notwithstanding, Barr faces a steep climb just to break even with Bergman. In 2024, her first campaign against him ended with a gap of 100,000 votes, or a roughly 21-point deficit.
In 2022, a better year for Democrats when Republican Kristina Karamo lost her bid for secretary of state by 14 points, she still won the 1st District by 9 points, which shows the uphill climb Democrats have in the district.
1st District Republican Chair Daire Rendon isn’t concerned about Bergman’s chances come November. Remarks like Stabenow’s, she said, are just “rattling of the sabers” standard of a party looking to drum up voter interest and motivation ahead of a critical election.
“Dems have to get the message out there every once in a while,” she said, “but clearly, the congressman has the wind behind his back on this.”
Despite comparatively low voter turnout for Republicans versus Democrats in primary contests across the state and federal conditions which seem to favor Democrats heading into the last weeks of the general election, Rendon said she’s observed her party’s voters in the district to be just as motivated as they’ve ever been – if not more.
“I think the response to what our state is going through as a whole has probably galvanized people more than it ever has. People today are feeling pressured and crunched by so many different things,” she said. “They see that a way of life that they’ve enjoyed up here is on the verge of changing dramatically, and that they’re not going to let that happen.”
Bergman’s campaign presence in the district tends not to extend far beyond TV ads, mailers and yard signs. His campaign’s most recent Instagram post was made in June. Cracchiolo acknowledged that running for reelection without holding many events in the 1st District hasn’t failed Bergman yet – he’s won nearly all of his races by 20-point margins.
Rendon said Republicans intend to stay the course during the next 21 days.
“We’re going to fight the race like we always have, but I have every confidence that he wins this in as big of numbers, if not bigger, than he has in the past,” she said.
As for whether something seems to have shifted for 1st District Democrats, Cracchiolo said he’s approached the cycle much like others where Bergman has coasted to victory.
“It doesn’t feel like ‘Oh, we’re gonna win,’” he said, recalling years prior where positive feedback early in the cycle skewed his perspective on Democrats’ viability in the district. “I’ve been caught up in this in some prior years; where I live in this little bubble of Democrats.”
Barr has put in the greatest possible effort, Cracchiolo said, for a candidate campaigning in a district of roughly 25,000 square miles and without financial support from national party infrastructure: he said he doesn’t believe “there’s any other box she could have checked.”
Whether Barr’s leg up from political heavyweights proves effective with only three weeks left in the cycle is anyone’s guess, Cracchiolo said. He doesn’t often bet against Stabenow, but said her prediction coming true would require “a perfect storm.”
“I hope they’re right,” he said. “I do hope it’s there.”
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